PC How to fix unfair randomness in the game once and for all

I was convinced back in A14 and I'm still convinced now, that the RNG in this game is broken, and I don't care what the pimps say contrary to that. I get random numbers, I get that weird results can happen, but I have seen - far too often - entirely improbably things happening repeatedly. The RNG in this game "sticks" or gives the same result in short bursts. I'm convinced that's half the problem here.

 
I was convinced back in A14 and I'm still convinced now, that the RNG in this game is broken, and I don't care what the pimps say contrary to that. I get random numbers, I get that weird results can happen, but I have seen - far too often - entirely improbably things happening repeatedly. The RNG in this game "sticks" or gives the same result in short bursts. I'm convinced that's half the problem here.
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Well i spend some months of my life by researching "randomness". And i can tell you that real randomness contains really such accumulations. Even i feel the same that they are a bit often. They are no proof of a broken randomness.

(btw i lost 150€ in the casino for my research, but i won 2500€ by analyzing these Quiz shows in TV people can participate by phone.

Sadly they changed the system short after that and closed the gap i used.)

 
The rng is exactly where it needs to be. Some of the best maps i have played started with TERRIBLE luck! Finding a cookpot is a basic necessity, augers and beakers are not , nor should they be easy to find or "given" to you by pseudo rng . Its already far too easy to get all you need most games. Guns and higher tier items should be much harder to find not easier and giving you all you need in the first week leads to the chorus of "bored" that litters the forums. Why are people so against struggle in a SURVIVAL game? Having to loot to find these things means taking risks without proper arms/armour to progress. Then finding that item is a massive plus.Please leave rng alone its a critical part of the game!

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The rng is exactly where it needs to be. Some of the best maps i have played started with TERRIBLE luck! Finding a cookpot is a basic necessity, augers and beakers are not , nor should they be easy to find or "given" to you by pseudo rng . Its already far too easy to get all you need most games. Guns and higher tier items should be much harder to find not easier and giving you all you need in the first week leads to the chorus of "bored" that litters the forums. Why are people so against struggle in a SURVIVAL game? Having to loot to find these things means taking risks without proper arms/armour to progress. Then finding that item is a massive plus.Please leave rng alone its a critical part of the game!

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because

And 200 x 3 days on a 60 min day means 600 real hours no auger.

Or better said, craft only = You are forced to specialize in crafting

A choice with no goable alternatives is no choice

(and before my statements end diferent as i meaned them:

My statement is simply:

Dont make essentials rng only, give them a guarantied way to obtain them. This way should be placed inside the gamepace after the point you want them, after the oint rng on average give them but before the player NEED them)

 
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Honestly this thread exposes the disconnect between people who like A17 vs A16. The people fan of A17 want less randomness, the people who like A16 want, if anything, MORE randomness. I for one am bored of the predictability of A17, and new games just aren't as exciting as such (IMO) so I'm shelving 7D2D until some more interesting updates come out probably.

And I just want to correct some mis-information about statistics here:

On damage buffs : Say there is a 20% chance for stun to take effect when you strike with heavy or clubbed power attacks . Sometimes it activates a lot of times consecutively but sometimes it doesn't activate for long periods of time making it unreliable. By applying pseudo random distribution you make absolutely certain thato on average 1 every 5 attacks is going to stun.
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20% means 20%, every time. On average, it means 1 in every 5 attacks, without this so-called pseudo randomness. Yes there will be some times you go 10-15 attacks without something procuring, but sometimes you will get it in 1 attack, it averages out. Pseudo randomness sounds OP because it would get you something procured far more than 20% of the time. Even if you happen to fail the roll 10 times in a row, the next time is still 20%, it doesn't increase or decrease in chance regardless of how few or many times you've tried the roll (with regular RNG). This principle is also known as "Gambler's Fallacy": read up here for more info https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

 
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Honestly this thread exposes the disconnect between people who like A17 vs A16. The people fan of A17 want less randomness, the people who like A16 want, if anything, MORE randomness. I for one am bored of the predictability of A17, and new games just aren't as exciting as such (IMO) so I'm shelving 7D2D until some more interesting updates come out probably.
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The randomness of Alpha 16, however, was paired with much larger maps. If you have one city after the other in a huge map the probability is very high that you will finally find what you are looking for because you get enough chances. If you have a tiny map with a few cities the probability of finding what you are looking for decreases.

This can only be compensated by setting the loot respawn to a very short period of time. However, there are players who basically play without loot respawn and who now have big problems finding certain things with the smaller maps.

Besides in alpha 16 still the zombies dropped more loot. For example, I got many beakers in alpha 16 from the horde.

 
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The randomness of Alpha 16, however, was paired with much larger maps. If you have one city after the other in a huge map the probability is very high that you will finally find what you are looking for because you get enough chances. If you have a tiny map with a few cities the probability of finding what you are looking for decreases.
This can only be compensated by setting the loot respawn to a very short period of time. However, there are players who basically play without loot respawn and who now have big problems finding certain things with the smaller maps.
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Well, that's true, but I'd say that's more of a problem with RWG than it is the RNG. But RWG is supposedly getting some love soon. And yeah, I'm also not a fan of the small maps. I tried a 4K map, and even in single player, it seemed way too small and I got bored fast. 16K is not too bad, but is still smaller than A16 maps.

Regardless, I still think (maybe I'm wrong but it's the impression I get) that people don't like RNG in general, hence why things like being able to craft virtually every item in the game was added, or buy from trader, bypassing RNG entirely. I mean, in games where RNG actually DOES suck (aka, MMORPG's) I can understand, but RNG in this game did not need addressing, people are just impatient and want things now without waiting for RNG.

You want to know what a truly bad RNG is? Vanilla World of Warcraft, back when level 60 was the max. I feel like people of todays' gaming community are spoiled lol.

Back in vanilla WoW, I had a guild master that religiously did a full run through of Molten Core (one of the end-game raid dungeons, for those who don't know). I forget how many times he did it, I want to say at least 100 (you could only do it once a week, so that is literally 2 years of religiously doing it), possibly more. Out of all those times, he still never got the RNG roll for the item he needed to make Hand of Ragnaros (one of the best weapons in the game back then). And people now complain that they aren't getting a beaker or something after a couple of game weeks (a few mere hours as opposed to YEARS)? Kids these days... :p

 
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Beakers are not critical progression items and loot is not the only source for them.Also, you can use chem stations that you find in the world.

Really a bad example.
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Actually it is a great example. I have zero Beakers (day 21, so I am close to where I could build a Chem Station). None of my traders have working Chem Stations and I have not found one on the map yet (4k map so I have explored a fair bit with no luck). Horde night #3 tonight and I cannot make gunpowder.

The actual randomness is what makes play-throughs unique.So what if you don't find a beaker in 3 weeks? Adapt. Play the game.
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You don't play on high difficulties do you??

A play through with no way to make bullets would be unique, I'll give you that. Fulfilling and enjoyable? I doubt it. They added Tool and Die set to trader inventory to make sure the player could always have one, Beakers need to be next, for exactly the same reasons.

I get that some players have their preferred progression path all plotted out and want to follow it as efficiently as possible but I don't agree that this needs to be guaranteed. ;)
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I am the first player to sit here and scream that I hate the new perk system precisely because it gives you the same items at the same level every play through. I hate that. I hate that it destroys replay-ability and makes every run pre-ordained, bland and the same.

Yet not for Beakers. Having Beakers as the one item in the game that cannot be made and must be found doesn't work, for two simple reasons:

1) Too much relies on Beakers. You cannot make bullets AT ALL without them because you cannot make Gunpowder. Without the ability to make bullets you CANNOT survive horde nights on difficulties beyond Nomad without exploiting the AI. You simply cannot. And I refuse the exploit the AI and never will.

2) beaker drop rate is extremely low, and it can only drop from a scant few loot sources. It's the perfect storm of bad RNG.

They absolutely need to add Beakers to the trader inventory, pretty much as a guaranteed item. Make them cost 20k if you must but they need to be buy-able.

 
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The quote you made from Gazz literally said "Loot is not the only source for them".

I can't remember, but doesn't the trader already sell them?

Even so, just increase the loot settings or rely less on ammo to clear horde nights by using non-ammo traps.

Also I swear it is only the people who have the worst luck imaginable that dislike the RNG system. I have never gone 21 days without finding a chem station in a POI.

Yeah there might be an OCCASIONAL game you might not get what you want, but it's so rare for that, that I cannot recall any game I have truly complained about not getting what I needed, even back in A16.

 
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Good lord, "unfair randomness" is a critical feature of this game, not a problem to be solved. It actually already has been "solved" (ie, broken) in a17 by the static perk tree unlocks rather than a16's system of looting random schematics.
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Agree, for every single item in the game except Beakers and Tool and Die Set. Lacking either of these items means no crafting bullets AT ALL. Which means you can't survive later horde nights without being a cheeser. And AI cheesers are scum, as we all know.

- - - Updated - - -

Even so, just increase the loot settings or rely less on ammo to clear horde nights by using non-ammo traps.
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Link me a video to a gamestage 300+ horde being defeated by only non-ammo traps (and no AI exploiting cheapness) and I will eat my hat.

 
Honestly this thread exposes the disconnect between people who like A17 vs A16. The people fan of A17 want less randomness, the people who like A16 want, if anything, MORE randomness. I for one am bored of the predictability of A17, and new games just aren't as exciting as such (IMO) so I'm shelving 7D2D until some more interesting updates come out probably.
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I think this is really it. The community has split (not evenly either) between these two play preferences. The real problem is that the two play styles are mutually exclusive from eachother, so it's going to be extremely difficult for the devs to make v18 appeal to everyone at this point.

Our group has gone back to a16.4 for the forseeable future which I'd recommend instead of completely shelving it. It was extremely enlightening to go back and see how much more fun it was, and I think even the people who like a17 should try a16.4 to see how it is and give their input on what it's like to go back to those game systems.

 
Agree, for every single item in the game except Beakers and Tool and Die Set. Lacking either of these items means no crafting bullets AT ALL.
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Funny, actually. You can make jars in the forge but not a beaker which is just a open glass cylinder with a few markings.

 
Link me a video to a gamestage 300+ horde being defeated by only non-ammo traps (and no AI exploiting cheapness) and I will eat my hat.
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And you are gamestage 300 at day 21? That's basically impossible, even on insane difficulty, unless you have dramatically boosted EXP gain, in which case, you are no longer playing vanilla and can't really complain anyway.

Anyway, I can probably come up with a non-ammo trap base that can clear GS 300 quite easily, especially if I'm allowed to use default difficulty settings.

Again you are the unluckiest person ever. Are beakers rare? Sure. But I always get them by the time I need them. And just because you can't craft ammo doesn't mean you can't find it or buy it from traders.

 
I for once agree with Royal Deluxe. Some essential items should be not be random at all. Still I believe my suggestion can provide the best of both worlds.

By the way you should all know pseudo random distribution is customizable. You can customize how much the chance increase grows. It can be anything,from ,to linear (current +1%), to exponential (current chance *2) to logarithmic (current chance + log(current chance) ).

The only thing you're missing is a little patience to run the numbers on matlab or octave.

 
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Especially essential items should remain completely random imo.

Makes you have to make choices in gameplay when RNG is a female dog to you.

Cheers

 
Agree, for every single item in the game except Beakers and Tool and Die Set. Lacking either of these items means no crafting bullets AT ALL. Which means you can't survive later horde nights without being a cheeser. And AI cheesers are scum, as we all know.
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This is more of a problem with a17's crafting requirements. In a16 you can craft bullets if you find a working workbench, craft gunpowder at a loss at any time or at a good rate with a chem station. There really was no limitations there.

In general I don't like hardly any of the perk-based crafting requirements, as they just make the game a grindy xp based slog since leveling is the only thing that matters. I think there's tiers of items to craft based on how essential they are:

Tier 1:

(These are critical and should have no real barriers to acquiring)

  • Forge
  • Basic Ammo
  • Iron Tools


Tier 2:

(These are important and should be perk or level based to ensure acquiring)

  • Work Bench
  • Concrete
  • Steel
  • Chem Station


Tier 3:

(These should have schematics to be looted to enourage the player to explore and produce varied and fun gameplay experiences)

  • Everything Else

 
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Brian, I like your point. I think a good compromise would be the ability to make things without the chem station, but at a loss / inefficiency.

 
I was convinced back in A14 and I'm still convinced now, that the RNG in this game is broken, and I don't care what the pimps say contrary to that. I get random numbers, I get that weird results can happen, but I have seen - far too often - entirely improbably things happening repeatedly. The RNG in this game "sticks" or gives the same result in short bursts. I'm convinced that's half the problem here.
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That a RNG generates clusters of numbers usually means that it's working.

Humans often perceive such an uneven distribution as "not random" when the opposite is true. If something has a regular pattern... it's not random.

 
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