Surprised? 90% of the people on this forum will have no idea about Markov's, so it would be pointless to examine in a discussion. Although, I had to refresh myself on it (thanks for making me

), and I still can't see how it would actually do much good here.. sure, bounds are useful, but in this case the reality is rather obviously limiting, and the useful bounds are found at the ends of the max sta bar (fed to full vs poisoned down to 25 (or so)) and outcomes (got +10 or -125 out of that steak).
That's essentially what the thread has been about, although in layman terms. I did mention that the expected value of a corn bread is negative once you have a pretty full stomach, but yeah.. going mathematical would require an audience that should understand it...
Feel free to do so though, I'd at least read a decent analysis of the current mechanic, possibly even understand ...