PC A couple of complaints I have

Currently in casino playing roulette. Instructions unclear. Send help soonish.

ETA: The wiki page for Food Poisoning is now fully operational.

 
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Enemy has triggered nerd rage!

My numbers came from looking at the probability of a rolling a particular number in a series of dice rolls:

[TABLE=border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500]

[TR]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD]Chance of not rolling a 6[/TD]

[TD]Chance of rolling a 6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]in 1 roll[/TD]

[TD]5 : 6 (~83%)[/TD]

[TD]1: 6 (~17%)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]in 2 rolls[/TD]

[TD]25 : 36 (~69%)[/TD]

[TD]11 : 36 (~31%)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]in 3 rolls[/TD]

[TD]125 : 216 (~58%)[/TD]

[TD]91 : 216 (~42%)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]in 4 rolls[/TD]

[TD]625 : 1296 (~48%)[/TD]

[TD]671 : 1296 (~52%)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]in 5 rolls[/TD]

[TD]3125 : 7776 (~40%)[/TD]

[TD]4651 : 7776 (~60%)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]in 6 rolls[/TD]

[TD]15625 : 46656 (~33%)[/TD]

[TD]31031 : 46656 (~67%)[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

A formula can be derived from that data to determine the odds in n rolls:

1 - <chance of
not
rolling a 6 in
1 roll
>
n
Thus the chance of getting food poisoning from eating n 4% foods is:

1 - 0.96
n
Yeps. Exactly what i was saying. I just missed your ~18% in the sequence. So i thought you were simply saying every roll adds 4% chance which would lead to a 100% chance after 25 eats. We are 100% agreeing.

Cheers

 
The funny thing about odds are that they are for future casting and somewhat helpful when making plans or comparing what might be a safer bet rather than something else. But at each event when eating that sweet charred meat it is simply a 4% chance each and every time. The feeling of "being due" is exactly what casinos bank on to keep people on the hook. Looking forward and calculating odds is helpful. But thinking that probability remembers the past is dangerous if you are prone to gambling or have vomit anxiety.

 
Perhaps I could interest you in my guaranteed system for making money on roulette? It is really pretty simple:

1. Bet the minimum amount on the "Red" or "Black" portion of the layout (does not matter which)

2. If you win, repeat #1 (change colors if you wish, it does not matter)

3. If you lose, DOUBLE YOUR BET and repeat at #1

4. Have infinite money, infinite time, and infinite allowance for bet size from the casino

Easy peasy. I sell a book with the complete description of the system including math and real-world examples and a BONUS chapter for how to use this system with virtually any casino game. Only $9.99 + S&H. If you buy my book, I guarantee that I will make money or your money back.

 
comparing what might be a safer bet rather than something else.
Exactly. I instinctively knew that one shouldn't eat low-value foods like corn on the cob when high-value foods are available. But it was really just a "gut feeling" and I couldn't quantify it, so as a good nerd I had to do some research and some math... :biggrin1:

 
Consider my complaints pretty much dropped at this point. I was just a clueless n008 but you guys straightened me out.
I should clarify that I still say the player non-sprinting walking speed is too slow. Other than that, I'm good.

 
Also a thing for the food poisoning is that a19 will have super food:

New super filling foodsAll new super foods have 0% food poisoning.

Gumbo Stew

Shepard's Pie

Spaghetti

Tuna Fish Gravy on Toast
Takes away the /fear/ of that 4% anyhows ;)

Cheers

 
I should clarify that I still say the player non-sprinting walking speed is too slow. Other than that, I'm good.
It is pretty agonizing when you are trying to get to the next town over. Watch for those bicycle parts at the trader, if you're not going into Int/crafting.

 
This happens every time when players talk about probabilities. =P
New survival skill learned: Math. The only thing that keeps you from making silly mistakes, like eating corn bread with a food bar above 130 - an thus eating an item with a negative expected food gain. :friendly_wink:

Maybe calculating and displaying the expected food gain based on the players food bar, food poisoning percent and the items food value isn't such a bad idea?

 
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