Yeps. Exactly what i was saying. I just missed your ~18% in the sequence. So i thought you were simply saying every roll adds 4% chance which would lead to a 100% chance after 25 eats. We are 100% agreeing.
Enemy has triggered nerd rage!
My numbers came from looking at the probability of a rolling a particular number in a series of dice rolls:
[TABLE=border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Chance of not rolling a 6[/TD]
[TD]Chance of rolling a 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]in 1 roll[/TD]
[TD]5 : 6 (~83%)[/TD]
[TD]1: 6 (~17%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]in 2 rolls[/TD]
[TD]25 : 36 (~69%)[/TD]
[TD]11 : 36 (~31%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]in 3 rolls[/TD]
[TD]125 : 216 (~58%)[/TD]
[TD]91 : 216 (~42%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]in 4 rolls[/TD]
[TD]625 : 1296 (~48%)[/TD]
[TD]671 : 1296 (~52%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]in 5 rolls[/TD]
[TD]3125 : 7776 (~40%)[/TD]
[TD]4651 : 7776 (~60%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]in 6 rolls[/TD]
[TD]15625 : 46656 (~33%)[/TD]
[TD]31031 : 46656 (~67%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
A formula can be derived from that data to determine the odds in n rolls:
1 - <chance of
not
rolling a 6 in
1 roll
>
n
Thus the chance of getting food poisoning from eating n 4% foods is:
1 - 0.96
n
Exactly. I instinctively knew that one shouldn't eat low-value foods like corn on the cob when high-value foods are available. But it was really just a "gut feeling" and I couldn't quantify it, so as a good nerd I had to do some research and some math... :biggrin1:comparing what might be a safer bet rather than something else.
I should clarify that I still say the player non-sprinting walking speed is too slow. Other than that, I'm good.Consider my complaints pretty much dropped at this point. I was just a clueless n008 but you guys straightened me out.
Takes away the /fear/ of that 4% anyhowsNew super filling foodsAll new super foods have 0% food poisoning.
Gumbo Stew
Shepard's Pie
Spaghetti
Tuna Fish Gravy on Toast
It is pretty agonizing when you are trying to get to the next town over. Watch for those bicycle parts at the trader, if you're not going into Int/crafting.I should clarify that I still say the player non-sprinting walking speed is too slow. Other than that, I'm good.
New survival skill learned: Math. The only thing that keeps you from making silly mistakes, like eating corn bread with a food bar above 130 - an thus eating an item with a negative expected food gain. :friendly_wink:This happens every time when players talk about probabilities. =P