I realize A21 will change everything just as A20 did for A19. Nothing is tied down for certain and I get that.
And, to be honest, this thread isn't an argument for or against what can or can't be done in vanilla. It was started as a "no loot" challenge which naturally lends itself to discussions about crafting and getting things without looting them. Invariably all threads like this lead to modding because vanilla was not, nor will it ever be, designed for these extreme challenges.
I will ask one final question though. With a little bit of knowledge or luck it is very easy to loot your way around (no need to make) the pipe/duct tape dependency for making a forge. It is arguably a lot "harder" to loot/find a pot for making duct tape. I've always thought that cooking with a pot was supposed happen earlier in the game than building a forge (not every game for sure, but the majority). Logically, finding something/anything to cook with over a fire would be trivial in most survival scenarios, even if it is a stick stabbed through a fish, and eating or drinking clean water would naturally be a much higher priority. Obvious exceptions would be desert or equally barren areas devoid of advanced life (no POIs or remnants of human settlements, for instance).
So the question is in which order do you people create your crafting stations through most of your games? For me, the aim is to solve early cooking (a pot), then a forge, and then a workbench. From there I no longer have a focus and it depends on how things fall as the game progresses.