Again, you are talking from the view point of an experienced player. And, you got to learn when the game gave you plenty of time to do that, but you think new players should have a harder time doing that. Players "figuring stuff out" takes time. No, I don't think that players will immediately know they can get meat from chickens and rabbits, just like I don't think they will immediately know they can use a shovel on bundles and sacks. And it is definitely hard to hit them. They dart away very quickly and run erratically, and the starting bow is terrible and takes a lot of practice.
Look at all of the things you say they can "figure out" or "Learn". That takes time, and much of it is not as obvious as you try to make it out. You know it now, so it seems obvious because of that. You can no longer see things from the perspective of a new player. Now, much of the problems I was mentioning were directly related to the status effect issues. You say they are fixing it. if that is true, then a large part of the problem will be resolved. I just don't see it on the known issues list. I mentioned that that was the biggest problem. I only mentioned stamina as an issue because of how easily the status effects are getting applied. If they can't move or fight back and keep getting those status effects, it is going to be extremely frustrating, and they will likely die over and over. When you started playing, this was not an issue. If it is fixed, then stamina is fine.
I'm guessing you didn't see what I was suggesting, outside of doing something about the status overload. An extra bandage, or two, an extra water, and maybe a better food item, and maybe some meds, if the status effects were working as intended. I can't believe you think that is a big deal. Btw, the number of daily players is not "staying up there". It was steadily losing players until A21 came out and people came back for it, and then the boost from the summer sale. However, if things stay as they are, they could lose those new players they gained, and maybe get bad reviews that prevent further sales. As I pointed out in my original post, that is why I made it in the first place. The influx of new players and their first impressions based on the current state of the game. You may be OK with them losing players, but I would guess that TFP would want the game to appeal to as many people as possible.
If the status effects get fixed, that takes care of about 90% of the issue, and the rest would be minor. I just hope they can resolve it soon.
First, being someone who develops software (even if not games), I have experience with developing things in a way that works for new users. I have experience in understanding the difficulties new users will face with any software project because I have to design software with that in mind. It doesn't matter what my knowledge or skill level is. I can still see it from their point of view. And I know that most new players are not going to be stupid and unable to get the hang of this game. The game is hardly a difficult game on default settings. Far more difficult games are out there and they do just fine without trying to ease new players into the game.
Any player who has played any game with archery or even any ranged weapons and sees something running around will know they can kill it (or at least they'll know it can probably be killed and will try to do so). Anyone with experience with such games will have only a slight challenge figuring out the bow. If they aren't used to using a bow, then sure, it'll take practice. But it's not a requirement to go after chickens and rabbits anyhow. I almost never kill those even from the first game I played. There is plenty of meat available without killing them. And with the increase in deer, it's not hard to do in the forest. Deer are slow until you spook them.
For pallets of resources, yes, once again the new player may not know the best tool immediately. So what? If they use the stone axe to get the resources for a while until figuring out the shovel works better for certain palettes, it doesn't hurt anything. And since they don't know any better, they won't even notice that it is taking too long. It'll be a nice surprise when they figure out the faster way to get those resources.
As far as debuffs not being on the known issues list, that list is not a great source for what is known. I'm going off what the devs posted on the forums that there was a problem with the debuffs that they needed to fix. That being said, it was mentioned during experimental and I don't know if it's been fixed yet (based on what they consider fixed). I know that I don't get an issue with debuffs anymore but I've seen people who say it's still happening, so I don't know if it's still a bug that just doesn't affect everyone.
I did see your suggestions for the starter items. I have no problem with changes there as long as it's not too much. I was referencing the idea that new players can't figure out the game and need to be walked through how to do stuff. I've admitted that a casual gamer with little or no experience in games like this (such as people who only play games like Candy Crush) would find this game hard to learn. But those types of players are not very likely to choose to play this game anyhow. Anyone who has even a little experience with this type of game (or any genres with similar themes - FPS, RPG, etc.) can figure it out without having someone explain to kill an animal for food or to buy a pot to cook with if the recipe says you need a pot and you haven't found one or similar things.
As far as player numbers before A21, this is normal. Once they are nearing a new alpha, players numbers drop significantly. Many people don't want to play when a new alpha is coming and so stop playing until then. The fact that we have record numbers now and those numbers didn't take a steep nosedive in the first few days that would suggest a lot of players trying the game and finding it too hard to play is a good indication that it's not too hard to play. And have you looked at the reviews since A21? Very positive. And the ones that aren't positive aren't saying it is too hard. They are saying they don't like the changes. It is the veteran players complaining. I really don't think they have anything to worry about for players. They'll lose some, sure. That's normal and nothing to worry about. There will be people who try the game and decide it's not the kind of game they enjoy. There will even be some who think the game is too hard (even if there wasn't a debuff bug) because they are not used to playing this kind of game. Again, not anything to worry about. In the end, these numbers will rise more for every alpha until gold. Active numbers will always spike with each alpha and then slowly drop off as most people don't play the same game non-stop and will set it aside for other games and come back off any on to play it. Nothing to worry about there.
I'd also point out that I've only been playing this game for about a year. I remember quite well what it was like as a new player and I didn't have any trouble learning the game. The issue for new players is the debuff bug. Everything else is pretty clear, though as I've said, having something to make the Journal more noticeable for new players would be useful - assuming it has useful information in there as I've never read it. They chose to do a tutorial that had to craft a bunch of stuff instead of one that tells you how to access the various important menus like many other games do in their tutorials. I don't think it's a good way to do a tutorial and I said that many months ago but it isn't horrible. I'd be fine with the tutorial being a more standard type of tutorial, telling the user important information and keys rather than just saying to craft a bunch of stuff. That would be better, imo. It should also be optional without losing the starting perk points.
Think back to when you started. Did you need someone to explain how to use your perk points? The game doesn't tell you (unless it's in the Journal, which I doubt many people ever look at). But it's so common to gaming that it doesn't take much effort to figure it out. Maybe you don't know the "best" perks to choose but that's entirely different from not being able to figure out the game.
I stand by the belief that games do not need to treat players like they are 5 years old. Get them enough info to get started and then let them loose and let them figure out the rest by themselves. There isn't any need to explain everything to them. A Journal entry is enough and they just need to make it clear that the new player can read their Journal for help.
That should be part of the tutorial. Do that and the rest is not a big deal beyond the debuff bug.