Well... actually there is a reason why certain methods are forbidden in casinos. (Like the coin doubling method
1. put one coin on black/red; even/odd;
if you win -> go back to 1; if not continue
2. put double coins on it again;
if you win -> go back to 1; if not go back to 2
This method GARANTUEES you to win money, as long as you have an unlimited amount of money to start with. (and reasonably if you have ~x^12 times the money you want to start with)
Why? Because if you win on turn 1, you spent one coin and get 2 back (1 win)
if you win on turn 2, you spent 3 coins and get back 4 coins (1 win)
if you win on turn 3, you spent 7 coins and get back 8 coins (1 win)
...
Technicially this also works with every other chance based statistic, but a 1/50 chance ramps up super quickly.
But again: Food poisoning is not bad. I was one of the few advocates to move it to cooked foods to give canned foods some value (although 5 stamina is laughable).
What I am saying is that the punishment is a bad one. You just lose all your food. It adds nothing to the game. It is a ressource dump with no benefit. It should add something.
I gave an example very early on but here a slightly modified version:
Increase food poisoning chance by ~6%. Give it a "buffer" of 50% total that you need to fill up before you can get food poisoning again (at 10% per normal meal, that is 5 meals are safe, while higher percentage foods fill it up quicker so no exploit)
Lose 50% of your missing stamina (min 30 as base value) over time. You can take antibiotics/honey and so on to reduce the effect duration by half. And while you have it, you are attracting zombies in proximity and you are slowed down.
This way there is a gameplay effect, a counter measure and it is not as random, since it is way more likely to happen.
Gameplay effect means that you will have a harder time exploring, maybe needing ranged weapons, counter measures are antibiotics and always beeing full (its like alcohol. An empty stomach makes it worse) is reducing the overall effect and people will get it once in a while and not feel so anxious because if it happened to them, they can at least relax and know that they can eat up without having to fear it happening again in a while.
Wow, genius idea. I hope someone with influance reads and likes this idea and gets it to the ears of whoever at TFP that decides if its a go or no go for being part of the game. If I could give you rep again i would.
Thanks for the info, but probability of food poisoning is not something I consider when playing. It is just something that adds a little bad luck to your survival and I can only see the entire food poisoning being a problem for about a week in game, at that point you should have saved up enough canned food to fill back up. I have so much canned food stored that I could live off it easily, but as said the meals are worth the risk to fill up quicker and again save more canned for for a rainy day.
I liked making meals as a small little thing to do when hanging around after 22:00, now I do not really have the desire to do so.I chose master chef right when I started a new game to be able to make steak and egg and I noticed there seems to be a lack of eggs in A18, 1 out of 10 nests I get an egg or two and the nests are not as populated outside as in A17, but I could be wrong.
Thanks for the info, but probability of food poisoning is not something I consider when playing. It is just something that adds a little bad luck to your survival and I can only see the entire food poisoning being a problem for about a week in game, at that point you should have saved up enough canned food to fill back up. I have so much canned food stored that I could live off it easily, but as said the meals are worth the risk to fill up quicker and again save more canned for for a rainy day.
I liked making meals as a small little thing to do when hanging around after 22:00, now I do not really have the desire to do so.I chose master chef right when I started a new game to be able to make steak and egg and I noticed there seems to be a lack of eggs in A18, 1 out of 10 nests I get an egg or two and the nests are not as populated outside as in A17, but I could be wrong.
No doubt the chance of finding eggs have been nerfed in A18. I did not like it at first but it is forcing me not to rely on bacon and eggs as I always had in the past. So I'm on the fence still about the nerfing that has been done.
EDIT: I cannot speak for everyone but I am trying to learn how the math is done so that I can understand how the game is talking. If I understand that precisely then I can incorporate that knowledge in to my strategy for dealing with hunger/eating system in this game. Just because a player "freaks out over this crap" or another way to put it, a player that wants to know how best to tackle this obstacle, is not silly. Rather it could be a player figuring out the most optimal way of eating.
So, I can see how this entire thread might be confusing. The game handles it pretty simply.... you eat something, you get a 4% chance of getting poisoned. All the other talk about "eating 5 times" or what have you, actually has nothing to do with how the game works.... its just how probability works.
It's obvious that you're better off eating a high stamina meal than multiple small stamina meals. But you can use the math to show how much better off you are.
Surprised? 90% of the people on this forum will have no idea about Markov's, so it would be pointless to examine in a discussion. Although, I had to refresh myself on it (thanks for making me ), and I still can't see how it would actually do much good here.. sure, bounds are useful, but in this case the reality is rather obviously limiting, and the useful bounds are found at the ends of the max sta bar (fed to full vs poisoned down to 25 (or so)) and outcomes (got +10 or -125 out of that steak).
Also even no expected value of getting food poisoning or of required foods to fulfill to max.
That's essentially what the thread has been about, although in layman terms. I did mention that the expected value of a corn bread is negative once you have a pretty full stomach, but yeah.. going mathematical would require an audience that should understand it...
Feel free to do so though, I'd at least read a decent analysis of the current mechanic, possibly even understand ...
I'll give it a shot....
You have a 4% chance of getting food poisoning, as we know.
The question isn't "what is my chance of getting food poisoning on my 5th cornbread?", because the answer to that is 4%
The question is actually, "what is the chance I got food poisoning at least once after eating 5 cornbread"
I could give you the formula (or you can just look in this thread, it's been mentioned a couple of times) but the answer is about 18% chance.
As others have mentioned, sometimes its easier to think of it in terms of coins.
"what is my chance of getting tails on my 5th coin toss?". The answer is 50%
"what is the chance I got tails at least once after 5 coin tosses". I hope its obvious that it's not a 50% chance. It's about a 97% chance that 5 coin flips will produce at least 1 tails.
The problem we have with complex dishes or stews is that even though they fill a lot of max stamina, the player should never neeed to fill that much at any time.
The current systems forces the player to eat at an almost consistent rate, on small portions to keep that bar up, whereas a sudden drop o max stamina 2 or 3 times per day, is not only more realistic, it also adds another reason to go after cooked food, please add this.
When that stat lowers just a bit, the player already suffers the consequence and eating a complex but expensive(time and ingredients) meal is wasting resources.
I just stick with boiled meat or beacon and eggs, I prefer to take the chances of food poisoning over that. When the buffs come to cooked meal, the problem gets diminshed, but doesn't go away.
TLDR, make max stamina not depend linearly from hunger, but in 3 or 4 steps
The problem we have with complex dishes or stews is that even though they fill a lot of max stamina, the player should never neeed to fill that much at any time. The current systems forces the player to eat at an almost consistent rate, on small portions to keep that bar up, whereas a sudden drop o max stamina 2 or 3 times per day, is not only more realistic, it also adds another reason to go after cooked food, please add this.
When that stat lowers just a bit, the player already suffers the consequence and eating a complex but expensive(time and ingredients) meal is wasting resources.
I just stick with boiled meat or beacon and eggs, I prefer to take the chances of food poisoning over that. When the buffs come to cooked meal, the problem gets diminshed, but doesn't go away.
One of my biggest issues with the hunger mechanic in this game is the constant need to eat and carry stacks of things so you don't die after a days work without food. Someone on here once mentioned "slow starvation" and it has been stuck in my head ever since. You shouldn't need to eat more than once or twice a day and food should be much more rare. Failing to feed yourself for a day should have consequences for the next day going all the way to day 7 at which point you are pretty much close to death (zero stamina and other problems). Eating on day 7 doesn't simply eliminate all that either, you gotta work your way back up to full strength by eating well for a while.
Of course this is a very rough idea and it would take a lot of thinking to make it work but that's what "survival" looks like to me.
One of my biggest issues with the hunger mechanic in this game is the constant need to eat and carry stacks of things so you don't die after a days work without food. Someone on here once mentioned "slow starvation" and it has been stuck in my head ever since. You shouldn't need to eat more than once or twice a day and food should be much more rare. Failing to feed yourself for a day should have consequences for the next day going all the way to day 7 at which point you are pretty much close to death (zero stamina and other problems). Eating on day 7 doesn't simply eliminate all that either, you gotta work your way back up to full strength by eating well for a while.
Of course this is a very rough idea and it would take a lot of thinking to make it work but that's what "survival" looks like to me.
In a game where crops grow in 3 days, having hunger consequences after a day is reasonable to me. Needing to eat throughout the day when you are burning a ton of calories is also reasonable to me.
In a game where crops grow in 3 days, having hunger consequences after a day is reasonable to me. Needing to eat throughout the day when you are burning a ton of calories is also reasonable to me.
Yeah but nobody dies of starvation after a day or two of hard work without food, water is a different story. Right now we have tons of food and eating is used like energy drinks. Crops and everything food related would have to be adjusted to the new system of course, nothing would stay as is. You could even add spoilage to a system like this as long as plenty of ways to prevent it are added.
Everything happens too fast. You find food too fast, you are hungry too fast, you die too fast and you get tired too fast. It seems to be on a daily cycle and I'd like to get it to a weekly cycle and reduce these massive amounts of food we see. Food would be the most rare thing you could ever find in this post apocalyptic world.
Yeah but nobody dies of starvation after a day or two of hard work without food, water is a different story. Right now we have tons of food and eating is used like energy drinks. Crops and everything food related would have to be adjusted to the new system of course, nothing would stay as is. You could even add spoilage to a system like this as long as plenty of ways to prevent it are added.
Everything happens too fast. You find food too fast, you are hungry too fast, you die too fast and you get tired too fast. It seems to be on a daily cycle and I'd like to get it to a weekly cycle and reduce these massive amounts of food we see. Food would be the most rare thing you could ever find in this post apocalyptic world.
Right, nobody dies after a day or two in real life.... and as I mentioned, crops don't grow in three days. Everything is accelerated because if realistic time frames were used for things, the game would be boring. Imagine waiting for crops to grow, injuries to heal, food to cook.... that would not be fun. You can't accelerate time for the good stuff and leave the bad stuff at a more realistic pace.
Hmm, I'm surprised at no one has discussed about interval estimation or Markov inequality, sticking with (joint) probability.
Also even no expected value of getting food poisoning or of required foods to fulfill to max.
The problem we have with complex dishes or stews is that even though they fill a lot of max stamina, the player should never neeed to fill that much at any time. The current systems forces the player to eat at an almost consistent rate, on small portions to keep that bar up, whereas a sudden drop o max stamina 2 or 3 times per day, is not only more realistic, it also adds another reason to go after cooked food, please add this.
When that stat lowers just a bit, the player already suffers the consequence and eating a complex but expensive(time and ingredients) meal is wasting resources.
I just stick with boiled meat or beacon and eggs, I prefer to take the chances of food poisoning over that. When the buffs come to cooked meal, the problem gets diminshed, but doesn't go away.
TLDR, make max stamina not depend linearly from hunger, but in 3 or 4 steps
I hope the devs listen to this and make it so that there is no stamina consequence for a nice margin of food consumption—sayy, for example, from 150 to 100 there would be no stamina drain at all. A nice margin like that would mean a good amount of time before needing to eat and then eating a meal that added up to 50-60 fullness would make sense.
), and I still can't see how it would actually do much good here.. sure, bounds are useful, but in this case the reality is rather obviously limiting, and the useful bounds are found at the ends of the max sta bar (fed to full vs poisoned down to 25 (or so)) and outcomes (got +10 or -125 out of that steak).
