PC A detailed breakdown of loot odds for the Shotgun Messiah Crate

[Boidster]

Because I hate myself, I did the math. Note that when you open the crate, the below table is checked from 1-3 times.


Percent chance of getting loot from a Shotgun Messiah Crate


Weapon Parts*

(all weapon types equally possible)



12%


 


 


Blue adds


 


Repair Kits (count of 2-3)


8%


 


 


up to 100%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Base Probability by Category


16%


16%


16%


24%


8%


Gamestage 1


Ranged


Melee


Armor


Ammo


Mod***


T0


16%


16%


16%


24%


 


T1


 


 


 


 


2.64%


T2


 


 


 


 


2.64%


T3


 


 


 


 


2.64%


Gamestage 10


Ranged


Melee


Armor


Ammo


Mod***


T0


14%


14%


14%


14%


 


T1


1%


1%


1%


10%


2.64%


T2


 


 


 


 


2.64%


T3


 


 


 


 


2.64%


Parts for same category**


1%


1%


1%


 


 


Gamestage 50


Ranged


Melee


Armor


Ammo


Mod***


T0


 


 


 


3.4%


 


T1


7.5%


7.5%


7.5%


18.4%


2.64%


T2


0.9%


0.9%


0.9%


2.2%


2.64%


T3


 


 


 


 


2.64%


Parts for same category**


7.5%


7.5%


7.5%


 


 


Gamestage 100


Ranged


Melee


Armor


Ammo


Mod***


T0


 


 


 


1%


 


T1


7%


7%


7%


17%


2.64%


T2


2%


2%


2%


6%


2.64%


T3


 


 


 


 


2.64%


Parts for same category**


7%


7%


7%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

















































































* This is the "weaponParts" group, listed directly in the Shotgun Messiah container loot group.

** These parts come from the Ranged/Melee/Armor groups, so for example instead of a ranged weapon you might get ranged parts

*** The ModsAllScaled group is weird and appears to be using the wrong kind of probability group; if TFP writes well-formed XML and their parser won't accept the wrong type of group, then the percentages above are correct. Basically it's an even chance between T1/T2/T3 mods, if the crate chooses from the mods group.

 

[Boidster]

I have been playing around with this over the last few days and have ended up with some XSL transformations which allow me to import loot.xml into MS Access in such a way that I can, probably, answer almost any question about loot probabilities. I'm going to play with it to see if I can make a useful, sharable tool out of it, but for the moment I have put up the XSLT files in the post below.

 

[Roland]

I can, probably, answer almost any question about loot probabilities

Goodbye Mystery....Hello Meta

 

[Boidster]

Yes, if this morphs into anything useful, it will surely turn out to be a good-intention-paved road. When I say "answer any question" I mean for the purpose of "dispel myths about how broken the loot system is" or possibly "uncover unknown bugs/quirks in the data".

I fully expect it will be used by some to either min/max to seven decimal places, or rant about how such min/maxing is now RUINED by TFP.

 

[Solomon]

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

 

[Kalen]

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

Doesn't it already do that?

GS 1, iron chance is 0,% steel 0%

GS 10, iron chance 1%, steel 0%

No idea what GS you could reasonably get to on Day 1.... would be an interesting test.

 

[Boidster]

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

Well, you'd have to define "outside of current gamestage" I guess, since by definition any scaled loot table will not allow anything from outside your gamestage. As Kalen points out, for the Shotgun Messiah crate there is 0% chance of finding any T1 items until GS 10. Same would be true for any container that uses the standard GS-scaled loot probabilities.

When I get done loading up the XML into my little project database, I ought to be able to figure out all possible pathways to T1 gear and perhaps find a hole someone could squirm through to get some early T1 loot.