This is probably the first alpha since A16 where I'm actively marking everyone gun safe, wall safe, desk safe, and locked reinforced chest on the map and saving them to open for later. It would be foolish of me to waste potentially upwards of 20+ lockpicks on one or to spend a whole in-game hour or more breaking into each one with my stone axe, and knowing that I'm either going to get mediocre loot early game, or at least loot that I could have gotten anywhere else. Therefore, I fall onto the Jailbreakers candy, and I might not open any safe until I'm past gamestage 50 or so. I no longer see them as an immediate extension of a loot room or an extra bonus container placed somewhere in a POI, but rather as something that I'll simply return to later. This is more of an observation, from my perspective a new path that has naturally sprouted through the current loot progression system, rather than as a complaint. I understand that what we currently have is not yet fully baked, and while this strategic move I have chosen isn't necessarily a product of a clunky system, but nonetheless I'd like to suggest a small change that might get players to reconsider this move regarding locked loot containers. As far as I know, I'm the only one doing this, but I suspect that this trend will continue with others; again, it seems more like a natural response rather than a niche move.
Might I suggest that certain loot containers, such as gun safes, could have a higher chance of giving the player a low quality firearm early on? Or if it's possible, could certain loot containers, such as gun safes, have their own unique gamestage/lootstage modifiers attached to them? (For balance reasons this bonus would probably have to diminish over time, much like the usefulness of the Lucky Looter perk.) With this hypothetical system in place, let's say the player is currently looting level 2 blunderbusses but then happens upon a desk safe, which at that point in the game has a higher chance of granting the player a higher level blunderbuss than what they would currently find in weapon bags and the like. The player would then be tempted to either break into it by hand, waste a few lockpicks, chug a lockpicking candy, or again, save it for a rainy day.
Not criticizing the candies here really, but with the Jailbreaker's added to the game, the idea above wouldn't necessarily work as well as it could unless the candy was nerfed, and/or showed up in vending machines a lot less often. Nonetheless, I believe that this course of action should take place anyway. 100% chance of success is quite steep in my eyes.
In general though, will certain loot containers have a higher percentage chance of dropping specific loot in the future? (Ex. Hardened chests would have a higher chance of dropping T3 items, like M60's, Auto Shotguns, and the like.)
Edit: Basically, safes are nothing special in terms of drops, they are very inconvenient to break into early on, and the player will want to save their Jailbreakers for a time when they can use it to its fullest potential while also having a chance of getting something decent from the safes in question. If TFP didn't suspect this strategy/natural path coming (read above for details), well here it is, for better, for worse, or "for neutral". Shrugs