Short Straw Question

[4sheetzngeegles]

I have a technical question, or mathematical or probability depending on how you look at it.

If randomized number system adds all of the elements percentages up to 100%?
Then when you are picking the perks or a book for more of a chance to find
a particular object in a loot container. Who draws the short straw?

I understand if you are investing in a perk to find more loot in a container
that is a whole number and another element added to the set, but the percentage some still
adds up to 100.

But if you don't choose the above for more quantity in loot, and only choose to
invest in an object. You start off with a finite set of elements, whose percentages
add up to 100%. The percentage chance for the selected object has to either be added
to the percentage raising it beyond 100 or it has to proportionately reduce another objects
chances of being spawned to keep it at 100%. Otherwise it is doing the find more loot in container.

If it does not do this then wouldn't picking an individual object, perform the same task as
getting more loot in a container. I ask because if you pick more loot in a container, and it
averages 3 additional items per container, or you choose 3 individual items like archery batons
spears, would they not both be doing the same thing?

If you use all of your points which covers every individual choice, and every perk, then it would not
be seen. But if you don't invest every point just because you have them, then how does the math
or probability work?

 

[theFlu]

There's a bit lost in translation, I don't really get what you're saying here :

If it does not do this then wouldn't picking an individual object, perform the same task as
getting more loot in a container.

But nonetheless, I think I can provide an answer. Let's say "melee weapons":
Spear, Bat, Sledge, Knife, Knuckles, Baton. 6 options, no skills on any. Chance of each is 1 => the game calculates the chances somehow, but essentially lands on 16.7% for each. So you loot 60 boxes and get 10 of each.

You spec 5/5 points into spears. The odds become Spear = 6, everything else is still one. The game calculates odds based on that, 6/11 for spears, 1/11 for everything else. Roughly 55% and 9%.
You loot 60 boxes and get roughly 60x0.55 = 33 spears, and 60x0.09 = 5.5 (5 or 6) of each of the others, still totaling 60 items. That 6x increase practically reduces the odds of the other things.

So, when you put a point in Spears, every other melee weapon loses. That's the idea at least. For some things, like medical piles, there's no competition for the medical magazines, so I don't know if that chances any odds at all. Same for cooking mags / cupboards, I dunno.

 

[Riamus]

Yeah, it was confusing to figure out what you were saying, but it comes down to how the percentages are done. The way it works is that it changes the total that you divide by.

With 6 items and each has 1 chance, you have each item with 1/6 a chance and a total of 6/6. If you put one point into something (I believe that adds 2 chances), then that item has a 3/8 chance, and each other has a 1/8 chance, for a total of 8/8. You never go over 100%. The divisor just changes.

 

[ElCabong]

Change one setting and see if that affects your gameplay the way you want it to. if you want to be a min/maxer you're never 100% sure what the game is going to do unless you have the source code.

 

[4sheetzngeegles]

if you want to be a min/maxer

No i'm at the opposite end of spectrum.

But nonetheless, I think I can provide an answer. Let's say "melee weapons":
Spear, Bat, Sledge, Knife, Knuckles, Baton. 6 options, no skills on any. Chance of each is 1 => the game calculates the chances somehow, but essentially lands on 16.7% for each. So you loot 60 boxes and get 10 of each.

This is where it gets lost with me. Reading the perks and attribute bonuses. I am playing about as close to, using no
bonus perks or accelerated perks as I can to just see how the game plays in a purely vanilla fashion. The demonstration
that you showed me of the 6 elements, yields 16.6666---% for each weapon. They add up to 100. So if I

You spec 5/5 points into spears.

If I spec 5 points in spears, and it raises the percentage chance for them, and the original total is still 100%.
So if spears was raised to 45.4545% because of the points, does that mean that the others things goes down
to 10.9091‬% chance because the remainder is divided by those 5 weapons, or does their percentage remain
the same, and the spears just get 5 more rolls to be rendered, similar to roulette.

That is where the disconnect is for me. I have never tried to mathematically calc in games. But there are points
for specific weapons, and points in a perk for specific weapons, are they not leveraging the same calculation.

What made me curious is, I have selected mainly survival attributes, well..., as close as possible because of all of
the interweaving, and read more in depth, the descriptions as I went along. I don't invest all my points, or it becomes
the same routine, i've selling all of my books except looter, cooking, archery, and this time the baton robotics. I Invested
1 in cooking, full looter, full tracker, 1 lockpick, and basically trying to stay at a just agility 6 for archery option later,
and perception to open all of animal tracker. I zeroed out the biome loot bonuses. In doing that just like I do with overhauls
it begins to show the preferential flow of the author.

That is what made me start thinking, is the point system, based on %, multiple rolls of chance, weighted quantities,or a combination.
I'm OK, mainly because I stop and mod mid game if it seems to be unbalanced. The books have unlocked my crafting, I'm rewarded
for going to higher tier areas and POIs, I'm fighting with t2 armor, pipe weapons, and a bow. But this is the first time in years
that I became curious, because when you slow down progression, you can can a different feel for how the root or vanilla game
is playing out.

I figured asking then someone, technically or mathematically inclined may understand and give me an idea.

I've only ever concentrated on environmental flow, but 2.0 for me has the greatest potential for enviro and game play.
That is why all of the things others constantly find inconvenient never affected my game play. This alpha makes me want to step outside
the tiles and mod. I just needed to know what logic it is based on.

It's given me an idea where to start. Thanks

 

[theFlu]

If I spec 5 points in spears, and it raises the percentage chance for them, and the original total is still 100%.
So if spears was raised to 45.4545% because of the points, does that mean that the others things goes down
to 10.9091‬% chance because the remainder is divided by those 5 weapons, or does their percentage remain
the same, and the spears just get 5 more rolls to be rendered, similar to roulette.

Well, percentages are always dependent on "what you're comparing against". In this case the only comparison that makes sense is the "proportional outcome in your loot, after the change". In there the percentages change, from 16.6% (1/6) to something like 9% (1/11) (+5 for spears gives it 6/11, not 5/11 )

But if you want to think of it in a physical way, a bag of beads is a decent analogy; at start the bag has one bead for each weapon, 1/6 chances. When you add a skill point, you add a bead for that weapon. Blindly picking, the odds for each bead are the same, but there are extra beads based on the skill points; and only one bead is drawn per loot container.

 

[4sheetzngeegles]

But if you want to think of it in a physical way, a bag of beads is a decent analogy; at start the bag has one bead for each weapon, 1/6 chances. When you add a skill point, you add a bead for that weapon. Blindly picking, the odds for each bead are the same, but there are extra beads based on the skill points; and only one bead is drawn per loot container.

That did it, for me.
Thank You
Now to post an anomaly.